WASHINGTON, 15 Jun (Reuters) – O novo chair do Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, tem falado longamente nos últimos anos sobre o balanço patrimonial do banco central dos Estados Unidos, a necessidade de se pronunciar menos sobre as taxas de juros e por que o órgão não deve se envolver em questões como as mudanças climáticas.
Uma coletiva de imprensa do Fed na quarta-feira, porém, marcará seus primeiros comentários substantivos no cargo de chair sobre o que está acontecendo com a inflação, o desemprego e as perspectivas econômicas, à medida que ele faz uma virada retórica das palavras abstratas de um analista de políticas para as palavras concretas — e potencialmente capazes de movimentar o mercado — do banqueiro central mais importante do mundo.
É algo que os investidores tomarão como um indício sobre a probabilidade de juros mais altos, que muitos agora prevêem para este ano.
O que poderia ter sido apenas choques de preços temporários, desencadeados pelos aumentos das tarifas de importação do governo do presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, e pelos preços elevados do petróleo devido à guerra dos EUA contra o Irã, agora ameaça se tornar um problema de inflação mais persistente. Enquanto isso, o mercado de trabalho norte-americano está próximo do pleno emprego, as contratações se recuperaram e os colegas de Warsh nos distritos regionais do Fed sugeriram, em um relatório recente, o aumento das pressões salariais.
A coletiva de imprensa imediatamente após o término da reunião de política monetária do Fed, realizada entre 16 e 17 de junho, dará a Warsh a oportunidade de abordar essas correntes econômicas contraditórias enquanto constrói uma narrativa sobre os riscos que vê para o banco central e como planeja estruturar sua resposta.
Warsh, que sucedeu o ex-chair do Fed Jerome Powell há cerca de um mês, “tem se manifestado muito mais abertamente em relação ao balanço patrimonial e à estratégia de comunicação. Quando se trata de qual é a sua teoria da mudança para a inflação, qual é a sua visão em termos da postura atual da política monetária, essas coisas são uma grande caixa preta que vamos começar a abrir”, disse Ed Al-Hussainy, gestor de carteiras de renda fixa e macro na Columbia Threadneedle, aos repórteres na semana passada.
Haverá muito a ser desvendado: a avaliação de Warsh sobre o impacto das tarifas nos preços dos bens; se o recente choque nos preços do petróleo vai persistir e se espalhar; se, como sugerem dados recentes, a melhora na inflação que vinha da desaceleração dos preços dos aluguéis já chegou ao fim.
Esses são os tipos de questões que Powell, que permanece no Conselho de Diretores do Fed, abordaria diretamente em suas coletivas de imprensa. Warsh afirmou que não quer fornecer muitas informações sobre os prováveis próximos movimentos do banco central em relação às taxas de juros. Mas onde ele traçará a linha divisória entre “orientação prospectiva” e a apresentação de suas perspectivas para a economia ou a inflação será um aspecto importante de sua coletiva de imprensa de posse.
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